NC State vs Texas Tech Prediction, Odds & Picks (March 21)

• We’ve made our NC State vs Texas Tech prediction for Thursday night
• The March Madness odds favor the Raiders by five points at home
• Read below for NC State vs Texas Tech prediction, odds and player props

No. 11 NC State aims to build off its ACC Championship victory as it kicks off the March Madness tournament against No. 6 Texas Tech on Thursday night. Tip-off is set for 9:40 pm ET, with CBS carrying the broadcast/

The latest March Madness odds favor the Red Raiders by five points over the Wolfpack. The over/under is set at 145.5 for a matchup featuring ACC conference championship standout star DJ Horne.

Let’s delve into our NC State vs Texas Tech prediction, as we analyze the odds and provide our best pick.

NC State vs Texas Tech Odds

In the NC State vs TTU odds, the Red Raiders are heavy -220 favorites on the moneyline, giving them 69% implied win probability. The Wolfpack come back as +180 underdogs, giving them 36% implied win probability.

In terms of the odds to reach the Final Four, Texas Tech is a +2000 longshot, while NC State is offered at +4000.

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Wolfpack Are True Cinderella Story

NC State fits the bill of a team that could wind up on the right side of the biggest March Madness upsets in history. The Wolfpack entered the ACC tournament as the No. 10 seed and promptly beat five teams in five days en route to a conference title.

NC State hasn’t just been taking advantage of a lackluster conference, however. Following wins over Louisville and Syracuse, the Wolfpack took down rivals Duke, Virginia, and North Carolina. The Wolfpack have proven they perform well in high-pressure situations.

DJ Horne's emotional interview "Why not us?" pic.twitter.com/NrJ4LUSlky

— CJ Fogler account may or may not be notable (@cjzero) March 17, 2024

NC State is heavily reliant on its offense, which averaged 76.4 points per game (98th). However, its defense has struggled for most of the season, allowing 72.7 points per contest (210th).

The Wolfpack feature five players with double-digit scoring, including the leader DJ Horne, who scored 29 points in NC State’s 84-76 win over North Carolina in the title game. He leads NC State with an average of 16.9 points per game, while big man DJ Burns Jr. chips in 12.4 points and 4.0 rebounds per contest.

Red Raiders Bit by Injury Bug

Texas Tech enters the March Madness NCAA tournament following an 82-59 loss to No. 1 Houston in the Big 12 Championship. TTU is making its first tournament appearance under first-year coach Grant McCasland following recent runs of success under previous coaches Chris Beard and Mark Adams.

The Red Raiders were one of the hottest teams in CBB between December and January, rolling off nine straight victories. They also had a four-game winning streak going before losing to Houston in that Big 12 Title game.

While the Red Raiders rank 23rd in offensive efficiency, per KenPom, they are dealing with some key injuries. Darrion Williams, the team’s third-leading scorer, hurt an ankle during the first round of the Big 12 tournament against BYU. He didn’t play against the Cougars. Warren Washington has missed six straight games and eight of nine with a foot injury.

Guard Pop Isaacs leads the team with 15.9 points per game, while senior Joe Toussaint averages 12.1 points per contest. The team’s defense allows 69.3 points per game, which ranks 97th in the country.

NC State vs Texas Tech Prediction

Can we really bet against a team having the type of run NC State is having? Though it’s cliché, the Wolfpack do feel like a team of destiny. It’s not uncommon to see a No. 11 seed knock off a No. 6 seed, as one of these upsets has happened in ten straight tournaments.

While we think NC State has value to cover the spread, we can’t quite bring ourselves to hit the moneyline. TTU has played a very tough schedule (33rd SOS rating), while NC State’s strength of schedule ranks 59th despite some solid recent wins.

Here are some betting trends to note before wagering on this March Madness game:

• North Carolina State is 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
• Texas Tech is 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
• Texas Tech is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against an opponent in the Atlantic Coast Conference.

Ultimately, for our NC State vs Texas Tech prediction, we’re backing the Pack ATS. Texas Tech’s potential lack of the 7-foot, 230-pound Washington under the rim would make it tougher for the Raiders to cope with NC State’s Burns, who proved against UNC he can take over a game.

NC State vs TTU Pick:

• North Carolina State +5.5 (-110)

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